Category Archives: 7.29.12 A Promise is a Promise
A Promise is a Promise
(Words & music by Chuck Berry)
I left my home in Norfolk Virginia
California on my mind
I straddled that Greyhound
And rode on into Raleigh
And on across Caroline
We had motor trouble that turned into a struggle
Halfway across Alabam’
Well that hound broke down and left us all stranded
In downtown Birmingham
Right away I brought me a through train ticket
Ridin’ across Mississippi clean
And I was on that midnight flyer out of Birmingham
Smoking into New Orleans
Somebody help me get out of Louisiana
Just to help me get to Houston Town
There are people there who care a little about me
And they won’t let the poor boy down
Sure as your born they bought me a silk suit
Put luggage in my hand
And I woke up high over Albuquerque
On a jet to the promised land
Working on a T-bone steak a la carte
Flying over to the golden state
Ah when the pilot told us in thirteen minutes
He would set us at the terminal gate
Swing low chariot come down easy
Taxi to the terminal zone
Cut your engines and cool your wings
And let me make it to the telephone
Los Angeles give me Norfolk Virginia
Tidewater four ten o nine
Tell the folks back home this is the promised land calling
And the poor boy is on the line
Greetings and Salutations;
Not much I will say, in a public forum. Work is done and it’s all over but the shouting. The skies have been rumbling and the weather forecasts rain on all the crops. A harvest for the world, as it were. Reagan’s appointee can finally take a much needed vacation from the labors and I can go sit my butt on a nice beach and drink umbrella drinks…and never speak of this change over again. It’ll make into the history books, called, “After the World moved On” or “Before the World moved On”…depending on your taste. Leading up to it is recent article that lets you see, the secret’s put. Now the real work begins.
- As the investment world eagerly awaits more stimulus, a debate on a previously unthinkable topic has started to emerge – can fiat currencies survive round after round of debasement?
Some heavy hitters say the answer is no.
A fiat currency derives its worth from the issuing government – it is not fixed in value to any objective standard. That means central banks can print as much money as they want. If an economy is struggling, injecting more notes into the system juices activity but lowers the value of the currency in question.
With major central banks all desperate to stimulate their economies, some say currencies have entered a dangerous new phase often described as a race to the bottom.
Mark Mobius, Executive Chairman of Templeton Emerging Markets Group, says investors will soon start to demand fiat currencies be backed by gold or other hard assets.
“It’s already happening, you’re beginning to see that trend with central banks stocking up on gold. The estimate is that at least half of the buying is central bank buying. They are looking to the day when they can say okay, our currency is backed by gold and therefore we’re a strong country,” Mobius told CNBC Asia.
Mobius has $50 billion under management.
Yu-Dee Chang, Chief Advisor at ACE Investment Strategists, says repeated stimulus is shortsighted. “If you keep printing money, sooner or later, we’re going to get in trouble. QE is good for the economy and for the market but the long-term effect is very much questionable,” said Chang.
But not everyone thinks fiat currencies are approaching their demise. Sean Callow, Senior Currency Strategist at Westpac Bank, says if there was going to be a melt-down, it would have happened by now.
“The bond market vigilantes have had every chance to punish the U.S. for its huge fiscal deficits. The markets are confident in these currencies – the U.S. dollar [.DXY 82.61 -0.20 (-0.24%)], the pound [GBP=X 1.5749 0.0009 (+0.06%)], and the yen [JPY=X 78.44 0.01 (+0.01%)] in particular. That’s where the balance sheet expansion has occurred and yet those currencies have held up pretty well over the past couple of years,” said Callow.
As the fiat currency debate gains momentum and relevance, one London-based manager of a billion dollar fund says the answer about what lies ahead is in the past.
“Every single fiat currency in history has collapsed, this time will be no different.”
Last but not least, hold on to your shorts, it’s coming and Man, is it Huge.
Love and Kisses,